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5 Technologies That Will Be Gone In Five Years

In April, 2009 FOXNews.com posted an article entitled Gadget Graveyard: 10 Technologies About to Go Extinct. I will save you the time and stigma of going to FOXNews.com and list the 10 gadgets here: landline phones, floppy disks, wristwatches, VHS tape, beepers, film cameras, typewriters, the Walkman, dial-up, and DVDs.

Really? Typewriters are just now circling the drain? Let me repeat part of that first sentence again: APRIL, 2009. Most of these are already extinct! Now I will agree that landline phones are certainly heading out of the door, but come on FOXNews. This article should have been written 5 years ago.

So here’s my response: 5 modern technologies that will be gone by 2015. Pay attention Shepard Smith.

1. Satellite Radio

What It Is:

A multimillion dollar satellite constellation and entertainment delivery infrastructure.

Reason It Exists:

Howard Stern wants to swear.

Reason It Will Fail:

Howard Stern’s contract is up at the end of 2010. As the number of satellite radio subscribers starts to decrease and number of Internet-based radio listeners continues to rise, Stern will abandon space radio for terrestrial digital radio. Left without it’s poster boy, Sirius and XM will slowly become the Betamax of space.

Who Will Suffer:

Sirius, XM Radio, GM, the FCC. The two satellite radio companies will find themselves in the same boat as Iridium, while General Motors will scramble to find some other incentive to sell cars people don’t want.

Who Will Benefit:

Apple, strippers. Regardless of whomever offers Stern the biggest contract, the show will surely be delivered through iTunes, raking in a small percentage of all paid Podcast purchases into Apple’s deep pockets. Millions of fledgling porn stars will rejoice and humanity’s knuckles and brows will descend slowly downward.

2. Text Messaging Plans

What It Is:

The $2 drink to the $1 value-meal that is your cellular phone plan.

Reason It Exists:

Stupid, stupid teenage daughters.

Reason It Will Fail:

Economics are simple. If something is overpriced, it’s only a matter of time before some other company delivers a comparable, cheaper, ad-supported alternative. Google, the savior of the Internet, has stepped up.

Who Will Suffer:

AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon. With dwindling text messaging plans, cell phone companies will be forced to make up lost revenue by playing with the definition of their “unlimited” data plans.

Who Will Benefit:

Google, parents. With the release of Google Voice, the rules of cellular phone plans have changed. “Fave Fives” are out and text messaging is free. Now your daughter can bitch about her best friend Becky without you having to drop an extra $20 a month.

3. Twitter

What It Is:

A simplified social network.

Reason It Exists:

Celebrity publicists waited too long to get on the Facebook/MySpace bandwagon and aren’t making that same mistake again.

Reason It Will Fail:

Parents, Nigerian spammers are using it. Popularity is inversely proportional to parental acceptance. Kids will jump boat if mom and dad start trying to be too hip. Other social networks like MySpace and Facebook are seeing this in full effect. And once the notoriously buggy Twitterverse is inhabited by virus and ad spewing spambots, people will no longer care when Jimmy Fallon got his last oil change.

Who Will Suffer:

FOX News, Ellen DeGeneres. As the news networks hilariously struggle to justify their existence to anyone under 25, celebrities will have to find another outlet to push their jewelry and dog food lines.

Who Will Benefit:

That new next-gen social network all the Internet is talking about. Really? You’re not on it yet? All my friends are. Seriously, you should check it out.

4. Broadcast TV

What It Is:

The de facto standard in entertainment media delivery.

Reason It Exists:

The Olympics, loveless marriages.

Reason It Will Fail:

In the age of on-demand entertainment, the outdated one-way delivery system is doomed. DVRs are simply a transitional technology toward the Holy Grail of full network supported on-demand content.

Who Will Suffer:

Advertisers, FOX, CBS, NBC, Disney. This is a lose-win situation. Big media is rightfully slow in its progression toward full on-demand content while they figure out that whole advertising thing. The final result is still unknown, but there will be a creamy middle between the ad-free media the cyber pirates want and the ad-plagued media your grandparents are used to.

Who Will Benefit:

Boxee, Hulu, Netflix, Verizon. Hulu is the early front-runner for online TV, while Boxee will play a key role in pushing forward the open source media center. Meanwhile, Netflix will continue to slowly drive a knife into Blockbuster Video as it expands its infant on-demand system onto newer DVRs. In the end, Verizon will be the surprise winner. As one of the few companies currently laying the ground infrastructure for fiber optics, Verizon will be able to handle the buttload of bandwidth that our future, fatter selves will demand.

5. Blu-ray

What Is It:

DVD’s richer, better-looking brother.

Reason It Exists:

High-definition TVs need someone to play with.

Reason It Will Fail:

Windows Vista. Society took a bold step in the mid-2000s when it stood up and declared that it didn’t want to upgrade from Windows XP to Windows Vista. Despite the flashy hype, we were still happy with the old model. And while Microsoft was sent back to their glossy drawing board, Blu-ray snuck in and tried a similar stunt. Unfortunately, many people aren’t all that excited about upgrading their extensive DVD collection. And as digital rentals and purchases are becoming easier and cheaper, the use for physical media and format-wars will become less and less important to the consumer.

Who Will Suffer:

Blu-ray. Videophiles will clamor on for years that digital videos files don’t look as good as their physical media counterparts. These people will open up “used-disc” shops across America, as collectors scramble to find the elusive mono-track “Scarface”. Future hip teenagers will hang out at these shops after school, slowly shoplifting them to bankruptcy.

Who Will Benefit:

Apple. Once again, the iTunes infrastructure will pay off big time as digitally delivered content becomes commonplace. Years later, in the spirit of “DivX”, some weekend programmer will develop a wonderful new video codec and name it “Blu-ray” just to confuse people.