Dude, Where’s My Null Hypothesis?
WWJD?
The indisputable evidence box was a conceptual mind-exercise I came up with a while back to test one’s ability to maintain justifiable skepticism. It’s like a pregnancy test for logic, except you don’t have to pee on anything.
In a nutshell, the test is to imagine a set of hypothetical evidence that is so overwhelmingly AGAINST your own belief system that you’d have no choice but to accept that you are undeniably wrong. The question is then: presented with this indisputable evidence box, would you abandon your beliefs?
I like this exercise because it’s naturally polarizing. For those with a strong scientific background, it’s a layup; the scientific method flourishes in this sort of situation where new evidence presents itself against a commonly accepted theory. But when the user’s response is fuddled, ambiguous, or even hostile toward the test, it’s quite clear that skepticism and rationality are not frequently-used tools in their personal bag of tricks.
The Indisputable Evidence Box
I wholeheartedly endorse a justifiable amount of skepticism. I think that to whatever belief system you subscribe, it is important to occasionally look around and find all your emergency exits.
In economics, a phenomenon exists known as the endowment effect, which can be simplified to state that “people place a higher value on objects they own than on objects that they do not.” This concept extends nicely into human belief systems; it is often consciously easier for a person to discredit a competing belief, than to apply such scrutiny to their own beliefs. In effect, you continue rooting for your horse regardless of its position in the race.
Any scientist worth his/her weight in beakers will tell you that we don’t know anything for sure. Even the most studied and excepted theories have microscopic decimal of doubt. But this skepticism is an extremely important part of the scientific method and paves the way for scientific progression. Personal skepticism unfortunately doesn’t always meet with such rigor.
A good exercise in personal skepticism is the Indisputable Evidence Box. This is a strictly hypothetical test, but may fall under a “test of faith” category for some.
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